European derivatives users are keenly waiting to discover what derivatives products are likely to be subject to the first clearing mandates, with the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) expected to release its first consultation paper on the topic within weeks.

The process picked up steam back in March, when Swedish clearer Nasdaq OMX was authorized as a central counterparty (CCP) under the European Market Infrastructure Regulation. From the moment ESMA was notified of the approval by the Swedish regulator on March 18, the clock started ticking on a six-month window for ESMA to conduct a public consultation and submit draft regulatory technical standards to the European Commission (EC) for each authorized class of derivatives product it recommends for a clearing mandate.

Since then, four other over-the-counter derivatives clearing houses have been authorized – most recently, LCH.Clearnet Ltd on June 12 – and the current thinking is that ESMA will group together the products it thinks may be suitable for the first clearing obligations, possibly into a single consultation to begin shortly. Furthermore, while the derivatives classes so far authorized for clearing across the five CCPs include interest rate, foreign exchange, equity, credit and commodity derivatives, it is anticipated that ESMA will prioritize the most liquid interest rate and index credit derivatives classes in the first instance.

That approach would seem to make sense, given the six-month window for ESMA to hand its rules to the EC for endorsement is rapidly disappearing. Already, the time set aside for the industry to respond to the consultation is likely to be limited – the first post-consultation draft regulatory technical standards are due to be handed to the EC in less than three months. Those rules will then be reviewed by the EC before being handed to the European Parliament and Council of the European Union for approval.

The good news is that the products likely to be proposed for mandatory clearing first are those where there is already a high level of voluntary clearing and where there is an existing clearing obligation in the US – in other words, the instruments the industry is most familiar with clearing. That may help smooth the consultation process.

But there is still uncertainty about the detail of how the first mandates will be implemented in Europe, meaning every second given to the short consultation process will count.

Frontloading is one such issue where much of the detail will only be spelt out in the consultation paper. ESMA proposed a possible approach in a letter to the EC on May 8, in which the frontloading obligation – the requirement to retrospectively clear existing trades once the clearing mandates begin – would only apply for transactions that occur from the time the regulatory technical standards come into force until the end of any phase-in.

This proposed methodology removes much of the uncertainty that had previously existed, but doesn’t completely eliminate the pricing complexities for end-users during the phase-in period. The switch from non-cleared to cleared would come with an array of potential fee, capital, funding and discount-rate implications, all of which would need to be considered and understood at the inception of any trade during the frontloading period. End-users would also need to find clearing members to commit to clearing at a certain point in the future, which some may be unwilling to do. The fact the date of the switch to clearing would be known in advance under the May 8 ESMA proposal makes that calculation slightly less complicated, but there are still a number of variables that would need to be considered.

Ultimately, the minimum remaining maturity – a level to be set by ESMA that will allow contracts with a time to maturity below this threshold to avoid the frontloading requirement – will be critical in determining the impact. But this will only be fleshed out in the regulatory technical standards. The hope is that market participants will have enough time to absorb, understand and comment on the implications.

This all makes for another busy summer for ISDA and its members.